Wednesday, October 31, 2007

NBA Tonight

On days I get a chance to run the tool I built for predicting NBA games based on past trends, I will post some selections with some trends I am focusing on, and see how things work out:

NETS –2.5 own the Bulls at home recently winning three straight, covering the last two as home dogs. Chicago comes in at 16-24 on road last year, including a miserable 1-5 on the NJ Turnpike tour of PHI, NY, NJ.

Sixers + 7.5 at RAPTORS. Philly has owned the champs of the Atlantic division recently covering 4 straight in Toronto. Sixers were a stellar 7-1 on road last year vs. their division.

ORLANDO –6.5 will crush the Bucks, winning 3 of the last 4 in Florida by 15+ points.

Wizards +2.5 against the banged up PACERS. Washington has covered 3 straight in Indiana, and were 23-17 on road last year ATS. Wiz also 5-1 last year +4 or better on road (selection of the night).

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

College Football

As we head into November, and things really start to heat up, lets take a look at the rankings - the rankings how I believe they should be right now in time....so, this is not a forecast...or, rankings based on who would win certain games head to hear...this is all about what you have done to this point, and where that work puts you in the pecking order

#1 Ohio State: How can you not put the Buckeyes first? They played in the title game last year (I know, they got blown out, but at least they were there to get blown out), and they are undefeated to this point, granted their toughest games are straight ahead. I personally dont think the Big Ten is down as much as some say; Pac 10 and SEC are both better, Big 12 would be third, and the Big Ten is a slight notch below that. Bucks as usual have a killer defense, but it is young. Have explosive WRs, solid RB, and a "no mistake" Krenzelesque QB. All that, and I think they will lose to the Wolverines the last game of the year, as Michigan has payback on their minds from last year, and the Bucks finally dont have Troy Smith to torture the Wolverines.

#2 LSU: The Tigers have the most talent in the country, hands down. However, I feel the coaching leaves ALOT to be desired, and will get exposed in big games. As a UM fan, I am not in the majority of wanting Les in Ann Arbor, but that is a subject for another day. Tigers have talent everywhere, led by both lines. They can dominate games from the trenches, and key in most games. However similar to the Bucks, their QB does leave alot to be desired, and you have to wonder if he can get it done in a pinch. I like what the Tigers have, but dont think they run the table from here, its just too deadly in the SEC. In fact, they lose their next game vs Saban and the Tide down in Tuscaloosa.

#3 Oregon: Beating the Trojans in Eugene this past weekend was a HUGE mental hurdle to get over for the Ducks. They have the second biggest OOC road win of the year beating Michigan in AA (S Florida's win in Auburn #1). Ducks are led by Dennis Dixon, quickly becoming a Heisman favorite and will surely be in NYC if the Ducks can run the table. This isnt you typical Pac 10 Duck team, they play some defense too. Big time showdown with the Sun Devils this weekend in Autzen, one of the toughest places to play in the country. Gotta like their schedule too, at least the best of the main contenders. I think we are going to see them in the NC game.

#4 West Virginia: only loss down in Tampa vs S Florida when the Bulls were playing some of the best ball in the country. Led by White and Slaton, two of the quickest skill players in the country, this Neer team is for real and wants to make amends for last season's meltdown. Had an impressive road win in Rutgers this past weekend, and close with 3 of 4 at home. That being said, they are going to win the rest of their games and finish with one loss.

#5 Arizona State: the cardiac kids of the desert, the Devils just keep winning and winning and not many are noticing. Behind Rudy Carpenter, and experienced gunslinger, their offense continues to get the job done, particularly in the second half of games, when its been needed after slow starts. They have a defense that lives on forcing TOs, and providing the offense with short fields, or TDs of their own. These slow starts have to be a concern as it seems they have come back in every game this year. Its been a nice story, but I feel it is coming to an end this weekend, and would not be shocked to see another loss or two after that. But it still has to be looked at as a succesful season, and Ericson might be working on something down there.

#6 Oklahoma: I am not as high on the Sooners as some others are. Bradford is a decent QB, but nothing to write home about and is still a FR. Yes, they have stud RBs and WRs, like every year Stoops has been at the helm. And the defense is pretty good, but its not one of this better units. Bad loss at Colorado, big solid blowout win over Missouri. That struggle in Iowa City has them down at 6 in my rankings, and I do not see them running the table either. They will win the South, maybe losing another along the way, but this is the year the North finally takes the Big 12.

#7 Boston College: I know, an undefeated team down at 7? Well, truth is the ACC is awful, and watching that game last Thursday was painful, and frankly, they should have lose the game. Ryan is a STUD at QB, and will be in NY come December. And their defense is serviceable, thanks to that ACC sked. With a tougher sked coming up, expect the Eagles to lose at the very least one game, most likely two. Dont be surprised though to see them in the ACC title game, if anyone cares.

#8 Missouri: Give the Tigers their due. They beat Illinois on a neutral field, won at Mississippi, beat the tar out of Nebraska and Texas Tech, and played well in Norman. Led by Chase Daniel at QB, their offense is very potent and can put up points with anyone in the country. And their secondary is very solid, but can that run defense hold up in a big spot against a solid team? They still have two road games left, and a finale on a neutral field against Kansas which could be for the Big12 North. Another team who loses at least one more, and drops out of the chase.

#9 Kansas: undefeated, and at 9? Sorry Jayhawk fans, but take it and shut it! Its been a great job by KU, but when the competition turns up, they are going to be in trouble. Give them their due, I thought they were losing at Colorado...I thought they were losing at Texas A&M. They are going to lose this weekend against Nebraska, and the ride will be over.

#10 Georgia: two impressive wins at Alabama and neutral against Florida. Stafford is coming into his own. They have a stable of RBs. Defense is slightly questionable. Dont think they will win the East, but I really think they are going to challenge for a NC in the next year or two.



There you have it, Oregon and West Virginia for the National Championship. Man, is that gonna raise some eyebrows.