College Football Week 2

Folks, I will be back within the next 13 days or so to complete the previews of all 6 conferences. Right now, I wanted to get out my weekly Top 10 that I posted weekly last year so you know how I am seeing things up to this point.

#1 USC - not sure there is any question about this at the moment as the Trojans once again are on top of the polls. With the best defense in the country, an experienced QB, great backfield, solid wideouts, and a pretty good line, they have all the intangibles to make it to New Orleans in January. They will have some road tests this year however, that could pose some issues starting next week in Lincoln vs Nebraska. But unless Keller plays ALOT better than he has in the first two games this year, the Huskers dont have a shot. Even if he does, its certainly going to take a lot of breaks to go the way of Big Red, but it isnt out of the question.

#2 LSU - the Tigers are waiting to pounce right into the #1 spot if the Trojans were to slip up, or not look so hot. As I type this, they lead Va Tech in Death Valley 17-0 so it looks as though they are going to roll to another win down there (not surprising me at all, Va Tech is not even a Top 25 team in my book). The only issue on this team they can control is inexperience at QB, but he is talented. They will of course have to navigate the wicked SEC unscathed to get to New Orleans, the sight of their last title a few years back. Look for the Tigers to be in the mix all year, with their offense being the critical aspect of their game meaning if it were to disappear one game, they will be in trouble.

#3 Florida - yes, I have the defending champs at #3. Just cannot put them at #1 losing how much they did on defense, and at QB, but they are certainly in the mix. And LSU has a better defense at this point to put them at #2. Man would I love a ticket to that October game in Death Valley vs the Tigers. Tebow has looked very well the first two weeks against subpar competition, but that is smart scheduling to let him get his feet under him. And give the defense some playing time to gel. They will need a RB to step up once the SEC schedule really kicks in or they certainly will not run the table.

#4 Oklahoma - their offense is probably better than many suspected it would be at this point in the season. Put an absolute working on Miami today, have scored 130pts in 2 games. And with perhaps the best WR core in the country, and a very solid OL and backfield, their new QB just has to manage the game and let his playmakers do the rest, of which there are plenty. The Sooners might have the best secondary in the country, and the front seven is Top 10 at worst. With what appears to be a down year in the Big 12, I look for the Sooners to run the table in the regular season, but will they win the Big 12 title game, where there have been upsets in the past? And will their SOS be enough if they are one of three undefeateds to put them in the Sugar Bowl? That remains to be seen, but all the Sooners can do is win games, and I expect them to do so all year.

#5 West Virginia - playing in a very underrated Big East. Will be challenged a few times in conference, but nothing out of conference besides the annual backyard brawl at the end of year with Pitt. White and Slaton lead one of the most explosive backfields in college football, but can their defense play well enough against top level competition? They struggled today in an "in state" rivalry game for a half, but turned it on in the second half and won comfortably. I dont think they have the talent to run the table, but they will contend in the Big East.

#6 Wisconsin - playing UNLV tonight in a late night west coast matchup so this ranking assumes a win. New QB in town who might be more talented than Stocco, but will obviously be lacking in the experience category. The Badgers do have a top 5 DL, and top 10 OL, and one of the best RBs in college football. I look for the Badgers to lose one game, at Ohio State this year which will earn them a trip to the Rose Bowl.

#7 UCLA - this is my sleeper pick this year, eventhough they are playing in what has turned into the rugged Pac 10. They looked good last week in Northern Cali against Stanford, where their defense controlled the game for the most part. Kind of the same story this evening vs BYU, where they shut down the Cougars for the better part of the game, minus a stretch in the third quarter. With a very, very good defense, and running game, I see that USC/UCLA matchup at the end of the year possibly being the biggest game of the college football year with a possible matchup of two top 5 teams and a national title game berth on the line.

#8 California - yes, the third Pac 10 team. I dont necessarily see this team being ranked this high at the end of the year, but right now they have been impressive beating Tennessee at home, then going on the road today and pulling off a nice win at better than you think Colorado State. They no question have one of the best offenses in the country, but need some work on defense to really challenge and be a consistent threat in the Pac 10.

#9 Texas - maybe disappointing to this point with sneaking out a win last week, and struggling early against TCU today. They do have a lot of talent, McCoy is one year older, but their defense is not that talented, especially in the secondary. I think the Horns will be tested often this year in conference, and see them losing at least 2 games there. But right now they deserve to be here.

#10 Penn State - JoePa's squad will round out the opening Top 10 of the season after the 59pt trouncing of FIU (who only lost to Maryland by 9 today), and blowout of ND this evening at Happy Valley. Morelli has all the experience and tools to be succesful this year including a Top 5 WR clan. In a down year for Michigan and Ohio State, Penn State should challenge for the Big Ten title.

5 to watch (alphabetical order): Auburn, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Ohio State, Rutgers

College Football Pre Season 2007

Alright, we are back for another great college football season. Last year saw the Gators cut shot the Buckeye dreams of a repeat, what is in the cards this year? Seems to be a wide open year, besides that team that resides in Southern California. But they have a tough slate to navigate through this year, with plenty of oppurtunities to trip up. This year I am going to get a little more detailed in my conf breakdowns, and also give you my Top 25 Preseason edition. Lets get right into my conferences breakdown, a breakdown that correctly predicted every division winner last year sans Wake Forest, whom nobody had.

SEC: Lets start in the East. This division without question is the toughest 6 team division in college football, and will remain very top heavy in the foreseeable future. And this happens to be where the defending champs reside, so lets look at the Gators. They have to replace Leak, a four year starter with Tim Tebow, who got considerable action last year. Thing is, he came in and mostly ran the rock, catching defenses off guard. It is a much different and tougher spot to come in and play all downs, be consistent, and handle those tough road atmospheres of the SEC. The Gators still lack a RB, but have great athletes on the outside. Defensively, they have a lot to replace, but certainly have the athletes to do it. Tennessee has experience at QB with Ainge, solid RBs, but are weak at WR with the lose of Meachem. Defensively, they have a lot of talent and will be the best in the SEC. They open with a big one on the West Coast against Cal, where we will learn a lot about this team as the seat is certainly heating up on Fullmer. Georgia brings back Stafford, their second year QB who has a lot of talent, and now one year of experience under his belt. Their backfield and wideouts are formidable, but not up to National Title contender status at this point. They will be relatively strong with their back seven, but their DL leaves alot to be desired, and pushes their overall defensive rating to a middle of the pack SEC team. South Carolina under Spurrier is improving, as he continues to get his players in his system, and things are only looking up in Columbia. They will be solid at QB and RB with very good players, that are experienced returning, but they will be a little weak on the outside, and that spot is key to Spurrier teams. They will be led defensively by a strong secondary. Vandy and Kentucky will be bringing up the rear once again, but are a threat this year to pull off and upset or two at home against the heavy weights. UK is led by Woodson, and potential Top 10 QB in next years NFL draft. Vandy also is led by their QB, and will have some strength on the outside. But both teams still arent where they need to be defensively to challenge for their division title, and dont figure to get there in the near future. With all that said, here is the way I see this division shaking out:

1. Florida (slight edge against Florida because their game is in the Swamp)
2. Tennessee (edge of UGA because of schedule strength, and experience at QB)
3. Georgia (last top tier team in this division)
4. South Carolina (improving but still a little away from challenging)
5. Kentucky (Woodson will lead them to a solid season)
6. Vanderbilt (things are just too tough in his division)

In the West, things are slightly easier than the East, but things are still no bargain. LSU, a national title contender resides in this portion of the SEC, and are clearly leading the way. The only question mark with the Tigers is at QB, where Flynn is taking over for last year's numbers one pick. Good depth and speed in the backfield, and outside will help the adjustment to the new QB. Defensively the Tigers will just be completely stifling, led by the best defensive line in the country. Their front seven is only rivaled by USC. The secondary has to replace some talent, experience and leadership, most notably Laundry, but they certainly have the athletes to take care of this on the Bayou. Auburn is led by Cox, heading into his final season down on the Plains, and some will classify his career as a disappointment. Could he pull a Chris Leak and lead his team to a title his Sr. season after taking the brunt of complaints for three straight year? Once again the Tigers have an unbelievable backfield, but need to replace some parts on the outside, most notably Taylor. Alabama, led by Nick Saban in his first year, will certainly stir the pot some this year. JP Wilson returns at QB, whose experience will help the Tide. They also have one of the top wideout sets in the SEC, and the country, but will be a little short in the backfield. Their defense is very average, and will be middle of the pack in the SEC, with no one position standing out good or bad. Arkansas will be led by heisman candidate McFadden, but have too many issues with qb play, and sheduling to not allow a run like last years. And once again, for what seems like the 10th straight year, Mississippi State and Ole Miss bring up the rear and do not even deserve any chatter in his post. Here is how things will shakeout:

1. LSU (national title contender)
2. Auburn (led by experience, could be a sleeper pick of national title if they can win at LSU)
3. Alabama (things looking up in Tuscaloosa)
4. Arkansas (going to be tough to follow up last year)
5. Mississippi (bad)
6. Mississippi State (worse)

Florida will beat LSU in the SEC title game, in an upset and it will keep the Tigers out of the National Championship game in their own backyard.

BIG 10: OSU has led the way for many, many years....and that will change this year. They have some rebuilding to do, most notable losing QB Smith after a helluva run the last couple years. The Bucks do have Wells coming back at RB, athletes on the edge (with not much experience losing Gonzalez and Ginn) and a pretty good OL, but its gonna take time to start playing at a National Title level again. Defensively they are replacing a lot, and again have the ahtletes, but its going to take time. Michigan appears to be leading the way for the Big 10 this year, returning a bunch of offensive starters which could easily be the most potent offense in the country. Henne, Hart and Manningham are a mean trio, and Long is awesome leading another strong UM line. Defensively, they are replacing a ton, but I beleive they will be better at the end of the year than they were last year. Wisconsin has a shot this year at making it to Pasadena, but do not see them going to New Orleans. A new qb steps in, but will Hill in the backfield, things are certainly an easier transition than most would experience. They also have a very solid trio of WRs that could start for most teams in the country. And its the Badgers, you know they have a good OL and DL. PSU needs Morelli to step up, along with those gifted WRs and form one of the better passing games at least in the Big Ten. Iowa will rebound from last years disappointing year, look for them to return to the Top 15 teams in the country. Purdue will have a nasty passing attack, but still will struggle beating the upper echelon teams in the conference. Northwestern has a sneaky good team this year, watch out for the to possibly reach .500 in the conference and play in a nice bowl game. Minnesota will be able to run the ball, but will have some growing pains with the new coach. MSU doesnt have much back and should be among the bottom 3 teams in the conference. Illinois is improving, and has a bunch of playmakers on offense. They just have to be more consistent, and play better on D. Indiana will have to adjust to the death of their coach in the offseason, look for them to get maybe 1 win this year. Here is my breakdown:

1. Michigan (offense could lead UM to title)
2. Wisconsin (can they beat UM at home in Nov?)
3. Iowa (things are going to turn around)
4. Ohio State (slightly down year breaking in new QB)
5. Penn State (potential to be even better than this, but have to beat top teams first)
6. Purdue (strong passing attack, might pull of big win, and have terrible loss)
7. Northwestern (decent year)
8. Illinois (trust me, will be a top 5 big ten team in two years)
9. Minnesota (new stadium will only help)
10. Michigan State (bad, bad year and things are only looking worse in near future)
11. Indiana (nothing to say here)

I will be back later this weekend to go over the remaining conferences.