NFL Divisional Playoffs

Best weekend of NFL football is upon us. Games start tomorrow with the Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens. Here is how I see this game breaking down:

Indy offense vs. Baltimore defense: This is the matchup we all want to see with the best offense (some will say) vs the best defense in the league. Nobody can argue that Peyton Manning is one of the Top 2 QBs in the league, so if anyone can break through against this rugged Raven defense, it is a Manning led offense. The Colts need to find some sort of offensive balance and that will come with a running game led by Joseph Addai or Dominic Rhodes. One of these backs has to show the ability to gain some yardage so the Ravens will respect their running game. Yards is not even the key for these backs, it is purely about the attempts they have. Need 20+ attempts to remain somewhat balanced. If they can get that #, the best play action QB in the league will have some chances to make big plays down the field. Not only will the play action force Ed Reed into the box for run support, it will slow down the Ravens sick rush off the edge. And that will be key. The Colts offensive line is one of the best units in the league, and usually keep Manning clean. Crowd noise will be a certain factor in this game as the crowd in Baltimore is one of the louder crowds in the league. It seems teams with tough defenses always get an extra little edge from their crowd, and with all the issue between these teams a long time ago, these people have not forgotten that either. On the outside, Harrison needs to bounce back after his sub par game last week and play much better. The combo of Marvin and Reggie Wayne are as good as it gets, and if Manning is given time, the most accurate passer in NFL history will certainly have the opportunity to make plays down the field. Colts are not playing their best ball right now, and though weather will not be a factor, noise will. I give the Ravens defense the edge here.

Baltimore offense vs Indy defense: The Colts really responded defensively last week in an impressive effort vs Kansas City. Looking into it deeper however, I saw a Chiefs team coached by Herm Edwards. Herm is a good coach, great motivator, but not the most imaginative offensive mind. I feel the Chiefs really played it too close to the vest, and once the Colts defense got on a roll, they fed off the crowd and the questionable play calling and had a solid game. The Ravens are clearly not an offensive juggernaut, averaging the lowest total (22.8pts) of any team left in the playoffs. The only scored 32 TDs all year, or an average of 2 per game. I am not sure 2 TDs is going to get it done this week. McNair certainly gave the Ravens a better chance to win compared with their QBs of the past. But Steve is clearly not the QB he once was, and he is just in their to manage the game and make a few plays. Jamal Lewis really has not played well in a few years, but he is the type of back that the Colts have issues with. The Indy defense is certainly not one of the more physical defenses in the league, and big, bruising backs can often have their way with the smallish, faster Colts, especially on grass on the road. The Colts speed rush off the ends could cause some problems for a less mobile McNair, but that will be negated if Jamal can get going somewhat. On the edge, the Ravens are lacking playmakers down the field, which will certainly help Indy in its attempts to stop the run. However, Todd Heap is a very good TE, and a major threat down the middle of the field, in particular on third down. The Colts have Dallas Clark, so facing him everyday in practice should help. Though the Colts defense played well last week, outside, on grass, against a physical offense is going to lead to problems this week, and we will see the defense we saw all year. Advantage Ravens.

Special Teams: Indy of course signed Vinatieri for moments like this on Saturday. Stover on the other side has had a great year, and was voted as an All pro. Give the edge to the Colts there. The return games I give the edge to the Ravens. Punting, advantage Colts.

Intangibles / Coaching: Dungy vs Billick. Two defensive minds. Billick with a SB title, Dungy with no SB appearances. Is this his year? I think this is the worst possible matchup for the Colts, I would give them a better chance against San Diego and New England. The crowd is going to be a very big factor in this as I believe this is one of the Top 5 toughest places to play in the league. Colts are not playing well right now, and they dont play well in the playoffs, particularily on the road.

Final verdict: I liked the Ravens prior to the year starting to reach the SB, and I am sticking with it. Ravens win this one 23-18. Can't wait to see Peyton not get it done in the playoffs again.

College Basketball continued....Big 12, Pac 10, SEC

Back to round out the Top 3 conferences in hoops.

Big 12: A perennial powerhouse conference that has been down lately. Some of the coaching star power has left this conference in the last few years including Roy Williams at Kansas, Kelvin Sampson at Oklahoma, Eddie Sutton at Oklahoma State, Quinn Snyder at Missouri...however, some big names have come in and are bringing back memories of the gold old days...these new coaches are Bobby Knight at Texas Tech, Bill Self at Kansas, Bobby Huggins at Kansas State. Interesting changes, lets take a look at the teams behind these coaches. I do not see a clear cut favorite this year, but will take Kansas. Kansas has a ton of talent, more than any other Big 12 team. They are led by Chalmers and Rush in the backcourt, and Mr Julian Wright in the front court. After a couple down years by Jayhawks standards, we saw what they were capable of with that fantastic matchup with Florida in Vegas earlier in the season. I like the Jayhawks this year. Next up, Texas. They have unbelievable talent, albeit very young. Kevin Durant, the diaper dandy power forward is a sure fire Top 5 pick in the NBA draft whenever he decides to come out. He has some support in the backcourt with Abrams and Augustin. They have played a pretty tough schedule to this point, with some nice wins, and some tough losses. This team should continue to improve as the season progresses. Oklahoma St and Texas A&M should challenge Texas for the second spot and all three teams should secure NCAA bids. OSU will have some transition pains moving to the younger Sutton as coach, but that homecourt advantage, and victories over Pitt and Syracuse show what this team is capable of. The Aggies made a nice run in the tourney last year behind PG Acey Law. He is back to lead the men of College Station into one of the most exciting years of hoops down there in years. Thus far, they have been impressive with a loss at UCLA by a duece, and a slightly bigger loss against the team that knocked them out last year, LSU. After these four teams, I have Kansas St, Texas Tech and Missouri with potential to make the postseason, but most likely it will be of the NIT variety. KSU will have things turned around shortly when Coach Huggins gets his players in there. TT is slightly down this year after making the tourney most of the last few years, given they havent done any damage. Congrats to Coach Knight for setting the overall wins record over taking Dean Smith with his win over UNLV in early January. Missouri does have some talent in place, but they are clearly in a rebuilding mode. These teams will be able to pull off an upset or two, but will lack the consistency necessary to make the Big Dance. The last five teams in order of finish will be Oklahoma, Iowa State, Nebraska, Baylor and Colorado. OU will be back under Mr. Capel, but it will take some time as Sampson did some damage to the program down there. I see 4 bids, and Kansas and Texas A&M with FF potential.

Pac 10: Wow, got some talent out west this year. Lets start with one of my favorites squads this year, the Arizona Wildcats. Lute Olson has himself a TON of talent in Tuscon this year, that is also balanced with a load of experience, a balance between front and backcourt, and a hunger to succeed. Team is led by 4 yr starting PG from Philly Shakur, and he is joined in the front court by Radinovic, Williams and the super frosh Chase Buddinger. So much skill there it is amazing. The question that often arises with Pac 10 squads is can they ratchet up the defensive pressure when necessary in the NCAA tourney and get stops at critical times against quality teams? That is an open issue that will not be answered until March, but until then, look for the Cats to lock the #1 seed in the West, and have a favorable draw to the FF. Committee members will remember the scenario they faced last year when they matched up with Villanova on their homecourt and played a heck of a game, one many argue would have been won by Zona on a true neutral floor. I know, I know what you are already thinking....No UCLA at the top? Well, just a hunch. What a run by the Bruins last year. I give them all the credit in the world, and they did only lose Jordan Farmar. Many argue they are a better squad without him, so it will be interesting to see how things play out this year. Bruins lost their first game this past weekend at Oregon, nothing to be ashamed of as MacArthur Court is always a tough place to play, and these Ducks are no push over with some quality wins already (Georgetown). UCLA will certainly be battle tested after their run last year, their tough OOC schedule, the brutal Pac 10 this year, and the Pac 10 tourney. If anyone has extra seats for the Bruins/Wildcats matchups, please contact me. I see both these teams as favorites to win the NC. Below these two heavyweights are plenty of other solid teams that are a big time threat as well. Oregon, Washington, and Washington State are the next three. Oregon has a great homecourt advantage that greatly helps their conference record. Plenty of young talent in Eugene that will develop this year, and the Ducks will be title contenders in the Pac 10 for years to come. Washington has quite a little program going in the Northwest now. They have turned this once football school into a perennial tourney team, abd the Huskies should get it done again this year. They showed what they are capable of with a big victory at home vs LSU, but have some questionable losses on their resume at this point. I look for the Huskies to finish above .500 in conference, and in the Pac 10 this year, that will lock up a bid. Washington St? The Cougars? Yes, I said it. Its a little late to take total credit for this call as they just became ranked this week for the first time in some 30 years. They have an interesting style of play, already went on the road and picked up some quality wins, and gave UCLA all it could handle in Pauley. Watch out for the Cougars in the tourney, teams that play that wicked slow style are always a tought matchup. USC, Cal and Stanford could push for NCAA bids, but I feel it will be tough. With Zona and UCLA in this league, that almost assures 4 losses for most teams. These teams would have to go 9-5 to get to .500 in conference if that is the case, and I see that as difficult for not only one of these teams, but surely all 3. NIT seems more likely at this point, but if I had to pick one I think could get it done, give me USC. Arizona State and Oregon State will bring up the rear. I see at least 5 bids, with UCLA and Arizona as FF contenders.

SEC: Home of the National Champs, Florida. I like them to win the regular season title this year, something they did not do last year. The Gators are just pure nasty with a frontline of Horford, Noah and Brewer with Green and Humphrey in the backcourt. Talent wise, not even close with anyone else in the country. Can they keep the hunger? Will they be able to handle getting everyone's best shot? Well, its too early to tell, but they have two losses this year already, and they have had a bunch of injuries. Not much will matter for the Gators until March as I would be shocked if they were any lower than a 3 seed. Big drop off, not just because they are the Gators, but the SEC is down. I see a few teams in the next range and they include LSU, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas. I believe all these teams will make the dance, but they each have a significant weakness which will keep them from making the FF. LSU made a great run last year ending in the FF behind Big Baby Davis, but they do not seem to have the same hunger or talent this year. Four losses already, I just think this team got on a run last year in March, and I expect an early exit this year. And Big Baby Davis is very overrated in my opinion. Alabama has a ton of talent with all everything PG Steele, but they are very inconsistent, and have had teams with equal to more talent recently that didnt amount to much. Kentucky continues to have issues scoring, and Tubby Smith's job may soon be in danger. He does not appear to be getting the kind of athletes Wildcat fans expect, and I have a feeling there is going to be someone else roaming the sideline in Lexington shortly. Tennessee, led by PG Lofton has a lot of talent, and plays a very up tempo game. Question with the Vols is their front line, but no question Bruce Pearl is doing another wonderful turnaround. A slight sleeper are the Razorbacks, coached by Stan Heath. Heath is attempting to bring back the glory days of May Day and 40 minutes of hell. I like the Razors to pull out a couple surprising wins, and do some damage this year. The other six teams are all pretty equal in my opinion, and all could make the NIT, but none will make the NCAA. Florida only team with FF potential, and they will get 6 bids.

College Hoops - ACC, Big East, Big Ten

My first post of the year regarding one of my favorite sports, college basketball. Similar to college football, I am going to do a conference breakdown. If you notice, I correctly predicted all conference champs in football except the ACC champ (did anyone have Wake Forest?).

ACC - College hoops really seems to be down this year, and the ACC is certainly in that grouping. I see UNC taking the title this year. The talent down on Tobacco Road is simply amazing this year, and the Heels should cash that into a #1 seed come Tourney time. Hansbrough and Wright lead one of the best front line combos in the country, while Ellington and Lawson provide the Frosh lightning aspect in the backcourt. These two guards compliment each other great with Lawson in the mild of Felton, and Elllington similar to a Stackhouse. Combine that with depth, the best scoring ability in the country, and solid coaching, the Heels are a threat to win the National Title this year. I see a big drop off after that with teams like Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Florida State and Boston College challenging for NCAA bids. I think Duke is currently overrated with shoddy scoring and PG play. Things are certainly down this year in Durham. Maryland has been an interesting team this year with some impressive wins (Michigan State, Illinois), and their two losses werent that bad (Notre Dame, BC). Clemson has been the surprise team in the country to this point as they are the lone undefeated left in 1A after a one point win vs Ga Tech last night. Gotta think they are a lock to be dancing at this point. Va Tech had an impressive win at Duke last night, but they still have a lot of work to do to make the dance. Florida St beat Florida earlier in the year, so they have the talent to get it done, but lets see how things go as the conference season goes on. And BC certainly has the talent to make the dance, but with some terrible losses already (Duquesne comes to mind), I am not sure about their mental state. Right now I see 5 bids for the ACC (UNC, Duke, Maryland, Clemson and one of the other three I list), with UNC being the only Final Four threat.

Big East - Another conference that is down this year compared to last, however, that isnt saying much with all the talent they had last year. I see many teams that could win the title this year, and they have to start in Pittsburgh. The Panthers have a wealth of talent back, with solid coaching. Pitt has actually changed their OOC style this year and played some teams which will make them better in the end. They are always a very physical team, and that is consistent once again. Below Pitt, I see Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse, Connecticut, Notre Dame, West Virginia and Providence all having a chance to make the Field of 64. A brief breakdown of these teams shows various strengths and weaknesses. Marquette has one of the better guards in the country, and have beat Duke this year. However, they are inconsistent, and their front line is a weakness. Georgetown is a team that clearly has not peaked this season yet which is a good thing for the Hoyas in my opinion. I think people are writing them off too quickly, and with that front line, they will have the chance to be dominant come March, especially with the right matchups. Villanova looked good until two BE losses this week that werent pretty. They certainly have the talent to be one of the Top 64, but can they get the coaching that puts them over the top? Syracuse is clearly on the outside looking in at this point, and frankly the Orange have been disappointing since winning the Title with Carmelo. I see them on the outside looking in come March. UConn only has 1 JR, and 1 SR on their squad, and they are both walk-ons! Better get the Huskies this year. The talent is there, especially along the front line and I think the Huskies will be playing much better than right now come late Feb and Mar. ND has been a surprise thus far, and the start should vault them into the dance. WV falls in the same boat as ND, a great start. It will be interesting to watch these two teams, and Providence and the season goes on. In the end, I see 7 bids (Pitt, Marq, Gtown, UConn, WVU, ND, Nova) getting in, with Pitt and GTown showing Final Four potential.

Big 10 - Again, not the usual suspects we have come to expect to see near the top the last 5 years or so. The Spartans and Illini not quite leading the way any longer the the midwest as new teams are rising. Big Ten is led by Ohio St this year, just like football. Even with nearly zero experience, that talent in Columbus is HUGE, as witnessed when they traveled to the Dean Dome in early December. And with Oden in the middle, anything is possible. Right behind OSU is Wisconsin, with another solid team under Bo Ryan. With wins over Pitt and Marquette, seeding should be favorable come March. The other teams that should be fighting for a bid are Illinois, Michigan, Michigan St, and Indiana. Clearly, the depth is there in the Big Ten, and the conference schedule is going to be brutal as usual. The Illini have lost an awful lot of talent in the last few years, but the pipeline is still solid in Champaign, and the cupboard is far from bare. Michigan has been a disappointment the last few years under Amaker, and that appears to be the case once again this year as witnessed by the 40pt loss at UCLA. Michigan St under Tom Izzo is always a threat. At 13-3, with two losses by 2 pts, the Spartans should be dancing come March, but this is not a FF caliber team. Indiana under first year coach Kelvin Sampson will continue to improve as the season and years go on. Once he gets his own players in there, the Hoosiers are going to be lethal. Their losses are very close too this year, and they have played a brutal schedule to this point. I like 5 bids for the Big 10, with Michigan being the only team I mention above not getting a bid. I believe both Wisconsin and OSU have FF potential.

I will be back later with the Big 12, Pac 10, and SEC.

NFL Playoffs - WC round

Ok, even though it is Sunday morning, and 2 games have been played, I am going to forecast the NFL playoffs right here and let you know where to wager your hard earned cash to get on top. Yesterday, it was a 2-0 day straight up, 1-1 vs spread. That two point conversion in the Seattle game wound up costing me, but overall, it was a good day.

Today, the early game pits the NY Jets in New England to face the Patriots. Big time rivalry game here, been that way especially since the Tuna bowls of the late 90s. This is probably the one match up in the WC round the Pats did not want to see. Jets will not be intimidated in Foxboro where Brady is nearly unbeatable, in fact, he is undefeated in the playoffs there. Breaking this game down further, when the Jets have the ball is going to be the key to the game. How is Pennington's arm? Many in the NY area believe his arm strength and accuracy have dimished as the season has gone on, especially the last 3 weeks. Can Leon Washington or some combo of Jets RBs carry the ball and take some pressure off the QB? Can Coles get open, and outplay the NE secondary, in particular vs Asante Samuel? I see a very low scoring game just like most Jets games this year. However, I see NE pulling away in the 4th quarter behind a couple big passes from Brady. Give me NE 20-13.

In the nightcap, another NY team has a division rivalry game as the Giants head down the NJ turnpike to face the surprising Philadelphia Eagles. In the earlier matchup between these teams at the Linc, the Giants came back after being down big early and defeated the Eagles in OT on a long pass from Manning to Burress. Things have changed dramatically from that point, in particular the last month of the season where the Eagles have not lost, and the Giants only won once. Running the ball is going to be critical for both teams in this one because the QBs are very prone to mistakes if asked to do too much. I think that plays into the Giants hands since Reid's playcalling tends to be heavily skewed towards passing the ball. Will that change now that Garcia is his QB? I am not convinced a zebra can change his stripes, and I am certainly not impressed with the Eagles RB committee strictly running the ball. However, as we saw last week, if the Giants feed Tiki the ball, and mix in an occassional Brandon Jacobs carry, this could possibly wear down the Eagles defense. Clearly, Garcia is playing much better than Manning, which is a huge advantage for the Birds. One has to wonder however if Garcia is due for a bad game? Out on the edge, the Giants have the better #1 WR, and the better TE which should assist Manning. Both teams do not have the best defenses, thats for sure. I see this game being a shootout similar to their two games played during the regular season. My key stat in this game is going to be rushing attempts. Whichever team runs the ball more times in this one will advance to the Divisonal round. At least one road team has to win this weekend after going 6-2 in the WC round the last 2 years. Giants win it by running the ball all over the Eagles defense 30-23.