New Years Day Bowl Previews
The final bowls are upon us as the College Football season has once again gone far too quickly. Looks like eventhough my Wolverines clearly got the raw end of the stick this year, we will be playing for preseason #1 next year in the Rose Bowl, which is not comforting for this year, but it will have to do. Here is the way I see the games on Monday:
Outback Bowl - Penn State vs Tennessee: One of a couple games pitting the SEC and Big 10. These matchups are going to go a long way in the discussion of who deserved the shot at Ohio St when all the games are in the books. In this game, offensively, UT has the advantage at QB with Ainge. Ainge has a very solid Jr. campaign after a rather disappointing So. year. PSU QB Morrelli has some maturing still to do in order to reach Ainge's level, so edge to UT. WR edge I would give to PSU with their playmakers on the edges. I do however like the Vol offense's ability to run the rock. Overall offense, edge to UT by a moderate amount. Defensively, much closer with both teams being relatively impressive on that side of the ball for most of the season. Since the Vols clearly faced more solid O's than the Lions, I would give the edge to UT mostly due to speed. Speed kills, and I really see this as a HUGE advantage for the Vols. Penn St really struggles against top level teams as can be seen in their performances year in and year out vs Michigan and Ohio St. Give me the Vols in a relatively low scoring game 24-10.
Cotton Bowl - Nebraska vs Auburn: What a matchup here in Dallas in a game I am certainly looking forward to. Auburn had some touch losses in the rugged SEC this year where they seemed to be playing a ranked team on a weekly basis. The Huskers have made it back to a NY day bowl game for the first time since that whipping they took in the Rose Bowl Title Game in 2003. QB matchup is a tough one here where Brandon Cox matches up be Zach Taylor. I like what Taylor has done this year with the West Coast offense, and Cox certainly has not had as good a year as last (very simliar to Ainge with his regression from FR to SO years). That said, in a pressure spot, I would personally rather have Cox under center. But for this analysis, give me Taylor with the slight edge since he did have a better season this year. At WR, I see the matchup very close with a possible slight edge to the Tigers due to speed. Running the rock, the advantage certainly goes to Auburn with a healthy Kenny Irons. Irons was a Heisman candidate earlier in the year prior to some injuries slowing him down, combined with the Tigers losing some games. The Huskers also have a ton of injuries in their backfield which I think will play a very significant role in this game and will force Zach Taylor to shoulder much more of the load. Defensively, I like the Tigers. I believe Auburn has one of the Top 10 units in the country, and getting pressure on Taylor is going to be key here. The Huskers defense is certainly no pushover as well yielding only 28 pts on the road to USC, 22 to Texas, and 21 to OU in the Big 12 Title Game. The Huskers should have a nice home field advantage for this matchup in Dallas. Auburn really laid an egg last year in its matchup with Wisconsin, and I dont see that happening again. Weather will not be a factor as it sometimes is in this game, and even with that, I like the Tiger pass rush to be the difference in this matchup. Look for the AU Tigers to take this one 23-16 and the SEC will start off 2-0 and the pollsters will be smiling.
Citrus Bowl - Wisconsin vs Arkansas: What a rugged lace em up matchup here between the Badgers and Razorbacks. Is there a team in the country that has received less respect and we heard nothing about it than Wisconsin? These guys are 11-1, their only loss coming to Michgan in the Big House, and they were not even in the talk for the National Title game. Impressive job done by first year coach Brett Beliema, with hopefully better thing to come for the Badger faithful. To the game, QB matchup has to go to the Badgers. Razor coach Houston Nutt is not even sure which QB will take most of the snaps in the game, while there are no doubts John Stocco will be taking the snaps for the Badgers after missing the last two games of the regular season. Razor freshman QB Mitch Mustain might be special in years to come, but his irratic and inconsistent play has caused a QB controversy down in Little Rock. Expect to see Dick under center for the majority of this one. Talk about heavyweight RBs, we got em in this game. PJ Hill of Wisconsin, and Darren McFadden of Arkansas both lead their teams into this matchup. Though both are solid, give me McFadden with his combination of size, speed and experience. I do like the Wisconsin O line slightly more than the Razors which will make the difference in running games even slighter. The passing games of these teams is not much to speak of. I would give the edge to Wisconsin due to the QB position. I do not see much passing in this one as this game could be over in under 2.5 hours. Defensively, I see a clear edge to the Badgers. Through the season, the UW unit has been much more consistent than the Razors (see 50 pt beatdown in season opener, or 38 pts allowed vs Florida in SEC Title game). The pressure the Badgers will generate on the Razor passing game is certainly going to force the Arkansas QB's into mistakes that will turn the game in UWs favor. I like the Badgers by a smidge in this one 27-24.
Rose Bowl - Michigan vs USC: What a matchup. Wolverines and Trojans. Rematch of 2004 Rose Bowl won by Leinart and the Trojans. Both teams are disappointed by not being in the Title game, but with Lloyd Carr and Pete Carroll on the sidelines, dont expect that to really affect the level of play here. This is also a potential Title game preview for next year. On to the game. At QB, edge has to go to Chad Henne over JD Booty. Henne has the arm, experience, and decison making compared to his peer in this matchup. In the backfield, you also have to give the advantage to the Wolverines with Mr. Hart. One of the premier backs in all of NCAA Football, Hart plays his best games vs top opponents, and I expect this game to be no different. The Trojan backfield is unsettled with no one true back taking the lead role. On the edges, we have two of the best in CF when talking of Jarrett (USC) and Manningham (UM). Though both guys missed time this year with injuries, and Manningham had some big games in very visable games, I would give the slight edge to Jarrett due to size and experience. Both guys are very talented (will be Top 10 selections in NFL draft), and expect both to find the end zone on Monday. Offfensive lines are top notch on both sides, but I will give the edge to Michigan. Jake Long is a Top 10 NFL selection and will lead the way. On the other side of the ball, both teams have very solid units. I think it is a wash overall. DLs I will take Big Blue due to the pressure they can generate from the edges, and the run stuffers they have at tackles. The Wolverines have a few Top 10 picks on that DL and they will play a critical part in this game Monday. I like the Trojans LBs over UMs by a slight advantage. In the secondary, I think it is a toss up. Both teams seem to have talent, but both can be had as various passing attacks have had their ways with each unit as some point during the season. Here are the three keys I see: 1 Which line can generate pressure on the passer better to force QBs into mistakes 2 Who will run the ball better 3 Which team comes out to start the game with more intensity and proves their are not disappointed about being there. With all that said, I like the Wolverines to get revenge and generate some controversy post bowls. The preseason #1 Wolverines will take this one 31-27.
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma vs Boise St: AH, the first Non BCS team to make one since the new rules were instituted. Now in my opinion, Non BCS conferences have had better teams than this Bronco team. That being said, they deserve to be here so lets move on to some analysis and break this puppy down. At the QB spot, how well has Paul Thompson played for the Sooners this year. He came to OU as a QB, transferred to WR, then came back to QB when Bomar was kicked out of Norman prior to the start of the season. He has gone on to play very solid ball this year leading his team to the Big 12 title. Zabransky for the Broncos is experienced, but has seemed to regress since playing stellar ball his first two years. Edge to OU. Mr. Peterson comes back for one final time in the garnet for the Sooners. He may be slightly out of shape, and not used to game speed, but I see him finishing off his college career in a big way vs. the Boise St defense. I see at least 150 with 2 TDs out of Peterson in this one. Boise has its own nice RB in Ian Johnson. However, nobody quite matches up with Peterson so edge to OU. WRs edge to the Sooners. Defensively, I like the Sooners unit overall over Boise. The Broncos have a nice front seven, I just dont think it will be enough to stop the OU running game. The play action pass that Thompson runs so well is going to eat the Broncos secondary alive a few times in this one. Too many big plays will be given up by Boise, and I like the Sooners big....38-17
Outback Bowl - Penn State vs Tennessee: One of a couple games pitting the SEC and Big 10. These matchups are going to go a long way in the discussion of who deserved the shot at Ohio St when all the games are in the books. In this game, offensively, UT has the advantage at QB with Ainge. Ainge has a very solid Jr. campaign after a rather disappointing So. year. PSU QB Morrelli has some maturing still to do in order to reach Ainge's level, so edge to UT. WR edge I would give to PSU with their playmakers on the edges. I do however like the Vol offense's ability to run the rock. Overall offense, edge to UT by a moderate amount. Defensively, much closer with both teams being relatively impressive on that side of the ball for most of the season. Since the Vols clearly faced more solid O's than the Lions, I would give the edge to UT mostly due to speed. Speed kills, and I really see this as a HUGE advantage for the Vols. Penn St really struggles against top level teams as can be seen in their performances year in and year out vs Michigan and Ohio St. Give me the Vols in a relatively low scoring game 24-10.
Cotton Bowl - Nebraska vs Auburn: What a matchup here in Dallas in a game I am certainly looking forward to. Auburn had some touch losses in the rugged SEC this year where they seemed to be playing a ranked team on a weekly basis. The Huskers have made it back to a NY day bowl game for the first time since that whipping they took in the Rose Bowl Title Game in 2003. QB matchup is a tough one here where Brandon Cox matches up be Zach Taylor. I like what Taylor has done this year with the West Coast offense, and Cox certainly has not had as good a year as last (very simliar to Ainge with his regression from FR to SO years). That said, in a pressure spot, I would personally rather have Cox under center. But for this analysis, give me Taylor with the slight edge since he did have a better season this year. At WR, I see the matchup very close with a possible slight edge to the Tigers due to speed. Running the rock, the advantage certainly goes to Auburn with a healthy Kenny Irons. Irons was a Heisman candidate earlier in the year prior to some injuries slowing him down, combined with the Tigers losing some games. The Huskers also have a ton of injuries in their backfield which I think will play a very significant role in this game and will force Zach Taylor to shoulder much more of the load. Defensively, I like the Tigers. I believe Auburn has one of the Top 10 units in the country, and getting pressure on Taylor is going to be key here. The Huskers defense is certainly no pushover as well yielding only 28 pts on the road to USC, 22 to Texas, and 21 to OU in the Big 12 Title Game. The Huskers should have a nice home field advantage for this matchup in Dallas. Auburn really laid an egg last year in its matchup with Wisconsin, and I dont see that happening again. Weather will not be a factor as it sometimes is in this game, and even with that, I like the Tiger pass rush to be the difference in this matchup. Look for the AU Tigers to take this one 23-16 and the SEC will start off 2-0 and the pollsters will be smiling.
Citrus Bowl - Wisconsin vs Arkansas: What a rugged lace em up matchup here between the Badgers and Razorbacks. Is there a team in the country that has received less respect and we heard nothing about it than Wisconsin? These guys are 11-1, their only loss coming to Michgan in the Big House, and they were not even in the talk for the National Title game. Impressive job done by first year coach Brett Beliema, with hopefully better thing to come for the Badger faithful. To the game, QB matchup has to go to the Badgers. Razor coach Houston Nutt is not even sure which QB will take most of the snaps in the game, while there are no doubts John Stocco will be taking the snaps for the Badgers after missing the last two games of the regular season. Razor freshman QB Mitch Mustain might be special in years to come, but his irratic and inconsistent play has caused a QB controversy down in Little Rock. Expect to see Dick under center for the majority of this one. Talk about heavyweight RBs, we got em in this game. PJ Hill of Wisconsin, and Darren McFadden of Arkansas both lead their teams into this matchup. Though both are solid, give me McFadden with his combination of size, speed and experience. I do like the Wisconsin O line slightly more than the Razors which will make the difference in running games even slighter. The passing games of these teams is not much to speak of. I would give the edge to Wisconsin due to the QB position. I do not see much passing in this one as this game could be over in under 2.5 hours. Defensively, I see a clear edge to the Badgers. Through the season, the UW unit has been much more consistent than the Razors (see 50 pt beatdown in season opener, or 38 pts allowed vs Florida in SEC Title game). The pressure the Badgers will generate on the Razor passing game is certainly going to force the Arkansas QB's into mistakes that will turn the game in UWs favor. I like the Badgers by a smidge in this one 27-24.
Rose Bowl - Michigan vs USC: What a matchup. Wolverines and Trojans. Rematch of 2004 Rose Bowl won by Leinart and the Trojans. Both teams are disappointed by not being in the Title game, but with Lloyd Carr and Pete Carroll on the sidelines, dont expect that to really affect the level of play here. This is also a potential Title game preview for next year. On to the game. At QB, edge has to go to Chad Henne over JD Booty. Henne has the arm, experience, and decison making compared to his peer in this matchup. In the backfield, you also have to give the advantage to the Wolverines with Mr. Hart. One of the premier backs in all of NCAA Football, Hart plays his best games vs top opponents, and I expect this game to be no different. The Trojan backfield is unsettled with no one true back taking the lead role. On the edges, we have two of the best in CF when talking of Jarrett (USC) and Manningham (UM). Though both guys missed time this year with injuries, and Manningham had some big games in very visable games, I would give the slight edge to Jarrett due to size and experience. Both guys are very talented (will be Top 10 selections in NFL draft), and expect both to find the end zone on Monday. Offfensive lines are top notch on both sides, but I will give the edge to Michigan. Jake Long is a Top 10 NFL selection and will lead the way. On the other side of the ball, both teams have very solid units. I think it is a wash overall. DLs I will take Big Blue due to the pressure they can generate from the edges, and the run stuffers they have at tackles. The Wolverines have a few Top 10 picks on that DL and they will play a critical part in this game Monday. I like the Trojans LBs over UMs by a slight advantage. In the secondary, I think it is a toss up. Both teams seem to have talent, but both can be had as various passing attacks have had their ways with each unit as some point during the season. Here are the three keys I see: 1 Which line can generate pressure on the passer better to force QBs into mistakes 2 Who will run the ball better 3 Which team comes out to start the game with more intensity and proves their are not disappointed about being there. With all that said, I like the Wolverines to get revenge and generate some controversy post bowls. The preseason #1 Wolverines will take this one 31-27.
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma vs Boise St: AH, the first Non BCS team to make one since the new rules were instituted. Now in my opinion, Non BCS conferences have had better teams than this Bronco team. That being said, they deserve to be here so lets move on to some analysis and break this puppy down. At the QB spot, how well has Paul Thompson played for the Sooners this year. He came to OU as a QB, transferred to WR, then came back to QB when Bomar was kicked out of Norman prior to the start of the season. He has gone on to play very solid ball this year leading his team to the Big 12 title. Zabransky for the Broncos is experienced, but has seemed to regress since playing stellar ball his first two years. Edge to OU. Mr. Peterson comes back for one final time in the garnet for the Sooners. He may be slightly out of shape, and not used to game speed, but I see him finishing off his college career in a big way vs. the Boise St defense. I see at least 150 with 2 TDs out of Peterson in this one. Boise has its own nice RB in Ian Johnson. However, nobody quite matches up with Peterson so edge to OU. WRs edge to the Sooners. Defensively, I like the Sooners unit overall over Boise. The Broncos have a nice front seven, I just dont think it will be enough to stop the OU running game. The play action pass that Thompson runs so well is going to eat the Broncos secondary alive a few times in this one. Too many big plays will be given up by Boise, and I like the Sooners big....38-17
posted by Pounder at 6:53 AM
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