College Football Week 14

Well, I havent done a writeup in a while...been very busy with school and personal things, but here we are...

College football season winding down...and that stinks.

Nevertheless, some very important games this coming weekend. USC travels to UCLA in the battle of LA. Trojans need a win to advance to the National Title Game over Michigan. And I think they get it, but not as easy as the experts and oddsmakers think.

SEC title game pits Florida vs Arkansas. I like Arkansas in this game to be too physical for the Gators on both sides of the ball.

Big 12 title game is an old school battle between Nebraska and Oklahoma. I think the Big 12 Title will go back to the North after what seems like many, many straight years of it residing in the South. Give me the Huskers and their passing game to outscore the Sooners.

ACC title game....Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech? LOL. Wow, who had this one prior to the year? Hey, but give these teams credit where credit is due. They got the job done, which included many big road wins by both teams. I have to like Georgia Tech in this game. I think the Jackets have the better team on both sides of the ball, and though the Deacs will find a way to keep this thing close, Tech takes it home for their first ACC title.

Here is the way I see the Top 10 right now, along with my BCS bowl predictions:

#1 Ohio St 12-0
#2 USC 10-1
#3 Michigan 11-1
#4 Florida 11-1
#5 Wisconsin 11-1
#6 LSU 10-2
#7 Arkansas 10-2
#8 Auburn 10-2
#9 Oklahoma 10-2
#10 Nebraska 9-3

BCS Title: Ohio St v USC
Rose: Michigan v Florida
Sugar: Notre Dame v Arkansas
Orange: Louisville v Georgia Tech
Fiesta: Nebraska v Boise St

I will be back to post reaction to the BCS decision, final regular season Top 25, and my selections to each bowl game.

Also later in the week, I plan on a college hoops blog to talk a little about the upcoming season, an NBA update as the first few weeks are complete now, and of course NFL power rankings and some talk about the playoff picture. Lots to get done, but check back later in the week, and I will get there slowly. Thanks for reading again!

College Football Week 12

WOW! WOW! What a day it turned out to be. Nobody could have predicted this. Well, we have all been waiting for Ohio State and Michigan, and we will get our dream next weekend. Both teams mowed through the opponents this afternoon after slight struggles the past week. I will have a full preview of this game in the middle of the week right here, so for now, lets move on to all the upsets and what it means for the BCS. My number 3 Louisville travelled to NJ in the biggest college football game in that state possibly ever, but certainly in my 30 years on this earth. The Cardinal went up 25-7, and the Knights came storming back in the second half. The RU defense shut out the vaunted 'Ville attack, and came back mostly led by the ground game combo of Rice and Leonard. Ito buried a FG with under 30 seconds to play (after missing the first attempt, but an offsides penalty gave him another opportunity) and the field shortly thereafter became a sea of red. Rutgers probably will not be able to get themselves into the National Title talk, but lets see if it can finish off the season undefeated with a trip to West Virginia still in the cards. Last weeks #4 Texas also went down in a HUGE upset in Manhattan, KS. McCoy went down in the first quarter, but that was not the reason they lost. Their defense got totally abused against a very average Wildcat offensive attack prior to this week. Texas had been struggling on the road prior to this week in conference games (2 wins by 6 points combined) finally caught up to them, which will happen with a Freshman at QB. Tough loss for the Horns, but they should still make it to the BIG 12 Title game. However, we will have a new champion this year. Florida, my #5 barely sqeaked out a victory against their old coach and the South Carolina Gamecocks. It took 3 blocked kicks, and another field goal that was taken off the board because of a delay of the game in the first half to win 17-16. Once again the Gators were less than impressive, and this time it was their offense. Well, it usually is. I am not sure what to think of the Gators at this point other than they are clearly going to be ranked #3 this week in my poll, with a lot of the season still to play for them and they teams chasing them. My #6 last week, California blew a big lead in the desert, got shut out in the second half like Louisville, and lost 24-21 to Arizona. Stoops really has this Wildcat team pointed in the right direction, and they are going to be a force to reckon with in the very near future. I was not crazy about this Cal team, very inconsistent in my opinion, and that was obvious today. They still control their own destiny to play in the Rose Bowl with a win over USC, but their margin for error to play in a BCS game went down a ton after this loss. Next team from last weeks poll, Arkansas had a big win today. The Razors had the biggest win of the day (Rutgers had the biggest of the week) and are in firm control of the SEC West, and appear to be on a collision course against Florida in what could be for a spot in the National Title Game. The Razors still worry me with their unsettled QB position, but as long as McFadden stays healthy, their offense will always be a threat as long as the QB can protect the ball. I would like to see Coach Nutt stick with Mustain at this point and ride out the season. Really only one game left at home vs LSU, and with a win there, watch out. Big time darkhorse here for the whole shabang. Auburn, another SEC team in last weeks rankings came up with an absolute clanker at home vs a 12 pt underdog Georgia. Mark Richt really had his team ready to play here, which was kind of surprising since UGA has lost their most SEC games in 10 years, and has a Freshman QB in their this year. I did not catch any of this game, but it seemed weather was a slight factor that led to more than a few turnovers, especially from Cox the Auburn QB. Auburn is eliminated from the SEC race and figures to match up with either Wisconsin or Penn St in a Jan 1 bowl game. Speaking of Wisconsin, is there a team getting less respect than the Badgers? These guys are 10-1, finished the Big 10 season 7-1 (only loss to Michigan), and not a peep about them prior to this week as one of the top one loss teams. This week they traveled to Iowa, a place they dont play well, and the only team in the Big 10 their Sr. class did not beat, without their starting QB John Stocco and win the game 24-21. New coach Beilema has these guys playing very well and believing in what they are doing. It will be interesting to see how the last few weeks plays out, and how high the Badgers will climb. It is very realistic in my opinon we could have 3 of the Top 5 at the end of the season from the Big 10. Notre Dame rounded out my Top 10 last week, and they continued to roll on beating Air Force. One more tune up before what suddenly again looks like a Top 5 match up with the Trojans. Wake Forest, which will debut in my poll for the first time buried Florida State in Tallahassee Saturday night. The Seminoles were blanked at home for the first time ever by the Deacs. I can hear the cries for Bobby Bowden's head all the way up here in PA. They got dominated in every single aspect in a half empty stadium. Things are going downhill for the young Seminoles quickly, and they only thing that can save them now is a home victory vs the Gators in a couple weeks. Dont count that out just yet. My new Top 10:

#1 Ohio State 11-0
#2 Michigan 11-0
#3 Florida 9-1
#4 USC 8-1
#5 Notre Dame 9-1
#6 Arkansas 9-1
#7 Rutgers 9-0
#8 Wisconsin 10-1
#9 Wake Forest 9-1
#10 West Virginia 8-1

Next 5 in alphabetical order: Boise St 10-0, Louisville 8-1, LSU 8-2, Oklahoma 8-2, Texas 9-2

Latest BCS Bowl projections:

Title game: Michigan v Ohio St
Rose: USC v West Virginia
Fiesta: Texas v Boise
Sugar: Arkansas v Notre Dame
Orange: Florida v Georgia Tech

NBA Western Conference Preview

OK, took care of the Eastern Conf earlier in the week, lets now look at the big boys where I see some surprises:

Northwest: I like Denver to bounce back from what may be termed a slightly disappointing last year. K Mart will be healthy, Melo is Melo, and Nene is back. I like the Nuggets. I see a battle for second between Seattle and Utah, and give the slight edge to the Sonics with Ray Allen. I put Minnesota fourth (yes, I foresee a KG trade later in the year), and Portland improved, but bringing up the rear.

Southwest: STACKED. Tough division, where there is more than one team that thinks it can win it. I like Dallas to win the division barely. They are a little younger and more talented than the Spurs and Rockets. I see the Spurs slipping this year, and actually coming in third behind the Rockets. This is the year Houston grows, shows signs of life, and TMac and Yao stay healthy. I like New Orleans to come in fourth, and Memphis to finish last. What a division from top to bottom. Memphis would certainly win the Atlantic, that shows how stacked the West is.

Pacific: My Suns reside here, and I like them to win the division with relative ease when all is said and done. Amare will slowly come back to where Phoenix needs him by May, and they are a little deeper this year in my opinion, even without Timmy T. Give me Sacramento in second with a whole year of Artest. I think the Clips, Lakers and Kings will battle it out for second. I will take the Lakers in third, and the Clips in fourth because of their age. Golden St. once again bringing up the bottom.

Playoff Seeds: #1 Phoenix, #2 Dallas, #3 Houston, #4 Denver, #5 San Antonio, #6 Sacramento, #7 Lakers, #8 Sonics

Conference Semis: #1 Phoenix v #5 San Antonio, #7 LA Lakers v #3 Houston

West Finals: #1 Phoenix v #7 LA Lakers

Champs: #1 Phoenix, and they win their first title

NBA Preview Eastern Conference

Though we are one week into the season, I still wanted to get my outlook out here so when I am correct on all 16 playoff squads, I can say I told you so. OK, so maybe that wont happen. But here is how I see the East breaking down:

Atlantic - I see this as the closest division top to bottom, with no real threats to even reach the East Finals. Lets start with the Nets, who have to be considered the favorite at this point. With Kidd, Carter and Jefferson leading the way, they clearly have the most talent in this division. If they could get some improvement out of Collins and Kristic, and the previous three stay healthy, they could threaten the top teams in the East. I dont see it happening. I am a fan of Toronto this year with the additions of Ford and Bargnani. I like them to make the playoffs and come in second in this divison. I will take NY at 3, where I believe Isiah will do some good thingst to at least buy himself one more year. Philly will come in fourth, they just do not have a lot of talent outside of AI. And lastly Boston, who really has no direction, and hasnt since Mr. Ainge took over. I liked Danny as a player, but as a GM, he should hang em up.

Central - One of the worst divisions just a few short years ago, this is not the powerhouse of the Eastern conference, with possible four teams with a chance to advance to the East Finals. I am still taking Detroit to win the division. I do not see the loss of Big Ben being that great, and I certainly dont see it doing enough for Chicago to make a huge jump. The Cavs will come in second, right behind the Pistons. LeBron and company will have another year to gel, and with him on the squad, they are a threat in the playoffs. I like Chicago to come in third, taking maybe a slight step back this year, but they will be in the playoffs nevertheless. The Pacers are going to be in fourth, a really solid team which would probably win the Atlantic. I see them also making the playoffs. And Milwaukee will be bringing up the rear, and again, there are definetely worse teams out there.

Southeast - The home of the defending champs. Miami will take a step back this year because of many reasons, mainly their age, and lack of hunger. They will still win the division, but I do not expect them to get back to the Finals this summer. Once again I like Washington to come in second, and hopefully do some more damage in the playoffs this year with their experience from the last two years. I am a big fan of Arenas, and would not be surprised if he won the scoring title this year (especially matching up with Charlotte, Atlanta, and Orlando a few times). The bottom three you can basically flip a coin in my opinion, but I will stack them Orlando in third, Charlotte in fourth, and Atlanta once again in last.

Playoff seeds: #1 Detroit, #2 Miami, #3 Cleveland, #4 NJ, #5 Washington, #6 Chicago, #7 Toronto, #8 Indiana

Second round matchups: #1 Detroit v #5 Washington, #2 Miami v #3 Cleveland

East Finals: #1 Detroit v #3 Cleveland

Champs: #1 Detroit

I will be back later in the week to discuss the Western Conference

College Football Weeks 10 & 11

We had some issues downloading the blog for last week, so I will combine both in one post here. The week really got kicked off in Louisville for the first of a few Big East showdowns to come in the next couple weeks. The 'Ville was very impressive on both sides of the ball, and really took control of the game when the 'Neers made a couple mistakes in a row early in the third. Slaton had a few fumbles, and also injured his arm. Once he was taken out of the game, the steam seemed to come out of WVU, and they could not stop Louisville at all. I think most of us knew the WVU defense was not solid, but they really got exposed in this game. Louisville travels to Rutgers this Thursday in another BCS title elimination game. Lets now move to the Big Ten where OSU and UM had some struggles, but ultimately came out on top, while both did not cover. The Buckeyes traveled to Champaign to face a feisty Illini team that has actually been in every Big Ten game this year mainly due to Freshman QB Juice Williams. Juice is a very good and exciting player, but takes some chances because of his youth that put their defense in vulnerable spots occassionally. The Bucks jumped out to a 17-0 lead, and held on 17-10. Eventhough the score indicates a 7 pt win, the game was never really in doubt as the Illini scored their only TD with under 2 minutes left. After they had a chance at recovering the onsides kick, the Bucks ran out the clock. One more game @ Northwestern before the big showdown the entire college football world has been waiting for since the second weekend in September. The Wolverines also struggled to a 34-26 win in a game I didnt see much of since it was on ESPNU. The Wolverines outgained the Cardinal by a ton, but made some mistakes that kept Ball St in the game. Give Ball credit as a 34 pt underdog and a chance to tie the game in the final moments, but it wasnt meant to be. Michigan travels to Indiana next week in what could be a tough game for a half or so. Next up, the SEC. Florida traveled to Vandy to face a better than expected Commodore team. I did not catch any of this game, but the Gators defense got the job done in the end, and locked up a spot in the SEC Title game. They will most likely face Arkansas in that could be for a spot in the BCS Title game. Arkansas rolled into Columbia and beat Spurrier's gamecocks 26-20. The Razors have to get their QB issues resolved, but lets look at the good...McFadden. Wow, this guy is one of the top 3 RBs in college football in my opinion. He has a very impressive combo of speed and strength, and the Razor offense is heavily reliant on him. They still have some battles coming up, so lets not reserve their spot in the SEC Title game until we watch the last couple games unfold. But no matter what happens, its been a good year in Fayetteville, and only projects to be better as Mustain gets some experience. Auburn stepped out of conference and beat Arkansas St. 27-0 (L on line). Did not see much of this one, but lets watch the last few weeks and see if the Tigers can get a rematch with Florida. Texas at home took care of the Cowboys from Oklahoma St. Colt McCoy continues to impress, and their defense was very stifling. They appear to be the best one loss team in my opinion with their only loss coming to the Buckeyes. I have jumped Cal up in my rankings to #6. These guys lost their opener in Knoxville, and have gone undefeated since. Opening up on the road against the Vols is no easy task. The Bears continued rolling Sat night with a 38-24 W (L on line) vs UCLA. This game was not on here, but they were in control most of the game. It seems the Pac 10 and Rose Bowl bid is going to come down to the Bears/Trojans matchup on Nov. 18. Game is in LA, so my early instincts tell me take the Trojans, but more to come on this next week. USC blew out Stanford on Sat night 42-0 on the road. The Cardinal is just terrible, and it was a good rebound for USC. And rounding out my Top 10 are the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame rolled the Tar Heels by 19 (L on line). As I have been saying for weeks, nobody will threaten the Irish until their visit to USC. They have locked up a BCS bid at this point. Below are my rankings:

#1 Ohio State 10-0
#2 Michigan 10-0
#3 Louisville 9-0
#4 Texas 9-1
#5 Florida 8-1
#6 California 8-1
#7 Arkansas 8-1
#8 Auburn 8-1
#9 USC 7-1
#10 Notre Dame 8-1

Next 5 in alphabetical order: LSU 7-2, Rutgers 8-0, Wake Forest 8-1, West Virginia 7-1, Wisconsin 9-1

Top 5 one loss teams ranked in order of who would win if games played on neutral field:

#1 Florida
#2 Auburn
#3 Texas
#4 California
#5 Notre Dame

My 10 BCS Teams including National Title game teams:

Ohio St, Michigan, Florida, Auburn, USC, Notre Dame, Texas, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Boise St

Matchups I see:

National Title: Michigan v Florida
Rose: USC v Ohio St
Orange: Georgia Tech v Louisville
Sugar: Auburn v Notre Dame
Fiesta: Texas v Boise St

NBA Saturday Night

First off, let me start by saying I have been having some computer issues that have not allowed me to post here for about a week. That is why the college and pro rankings have not been updated for last weeks action. I will make another attempt to at least post the rankings later today.

I am going to start posting some analysis on NBA games for you gamblers out there on Saturday nights. I have built up a database with last years games, and if some of these trends start to show promise, I might extend it to the last couple years and see what happens. Here is analysis on tonights games:

Boston @ Washington: Typically, these two teams play close games. Just last year there were a couple buzzer beaters by Pierce and Arenas. This game has conflicting trends on the side and total. Boston trends are pointing to Boston and the under, Washington trends point towards Washington and the over. If you twisted my arm, I would take Boston and the over, but this blog is only going to use trends to make selections, so pass.

Cleveland @ Charlotte: Charlotte was a great team to play last year, actually having the best ATS in the league (46-33), and the third highest for overs (45-35). Trends in this game show Cleveland however due to covering 7 of 10 on road on back to backs, and covering both last year at Charlotte. Also, 6 of 7 have gone under on the road for B2B. Stay away from this one as well.

Memphis @ Detroit: Grizzlies were 6-2, 10-6 in road, B2B situations. There were some under trends in this game, but the line was set too high, so I will stay away from this one again.

Indiana @ New York: Knicks were 2-6 at home during back to backs last year. Here is the first trend we can play tonight: NY under is 14-3 off B2B, and Pacers hit the under on road B2B 6 of their last 7. Take the under.

Sacramento @ Milwaukee: Bucks played 12 of last 16 under off one day rest at home. They are also 4-0 when favored between -2 to -3 off one day rest at home. Nothing on the Sac end, so i will pass.

Dallas @ Houston: Rockets were 0-4 as home dog more than 3 off one day rest last year. Even though there are no trends on Dallas' side, I am a big fan of Dallas in this spot. Not going to lose two in a row in the lone star state. As long as line stays under 3, take it.

Golden State @ Utah: Warriors played 9 of 12 under in B2B on road. Jazz are 2-5 at home B2B, but 3-0-1 B2B -5 or higher. I kinda like the Warriors here, but would stay away because we are not sure how the Jazz will bounce back from their big win last night.

Minnesota @ Portland: Blazers are 0-5 at home B2B. Portland is also 0-3 +3 or lower B2B. I like the Wolves here.

Phoenix @ LA Clippers: Tough game to play here. Phoenix only has 1 win thus far, and it was against the Clipps. Clippers have lost 6 of 7 off one day rest. Anytime you can get the Suns, one of the TOP 5 teams in the NBA at +4, I have to take it. Also, Clipps have played 4 of 6 over when line is 200+ at home off one day rest.

To close, I certainly like the MAVS tonight big. To a lesser extent, I like the Wolves, Suns and the Pacers/Knicks under. From a high level, it looks like there should be some unders tonight as well.

Thanks for reading, see you next Saturday.